BJP in Tamil Nadu: Why Narendra Modi loves Chennai over many others?

With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) setting an ambitious target of securing 370 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 4 undertook his fourth visit to Tamil Nadu in the past three months. Aiming to exceed its 2019 tally of 303 seats, these visits by the PM emphasize the importance of this southern state in BJP’s scheme of things. The party has traditionally faced challenges in the state where politics is dominated by Dravidian parties for several decades.

The BJP's bid to make a mark in Tamil Nadu riding on the wave created by the PM's visits is a significant electoral endeavor. However, the extent to which this momentum will translate into votes and seat shares remains uncertain.

Despite the possibility of falling short of this ambitious goal, it is believed that the BJP is well-positioned to return to power at the Centre. The real challenge for the ruling party lies in improving its performance, especially in southern states where it has struggled to make a significant impact. Barring Karnataka where BJP won 26 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats and Telangana where party won four out of 17 seats last time, the saffron party hasn’t ever won a single seat in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Historical challenges in Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu has proven to be a toughest battleground for the BJP, which has failed to gain significant traction in the past. For the first time, BJP won four assembly seats in association with the PMK, in the state during the last elections.

The party has never won a single seat on its own. The language barrier and a lack of strong local leadership have been identified as major impediments for the BJP in Tamil Nadu. Prime Minister’s visits to Tamil Nadu are expected to inject new energy into the BJP's efforts in the state, posing direct challenges to the CM MK Stalin-led ruling DMK.

Opinion polls indicate a substantial vote share for the BJP in Tamil Nadu, with projections ranging from 19% to 20.4%. However, varying seat predictions underscore the challenges the BJP faces in converting support into electoral victories, especially without aligning with AIADMK this time.

BJP's alliance strategy

The BJP's alliance with AIADMK dissolved last year due to party's state chief K Annamalai's assertive politics. In response, the BJP is actively seeking alliances with smaller parties while attempting to lure leaders from AIADMK.

Despite AIADMK's reluctance for a patch-up, the BJP is maintaining a cautious silence and exploring the possibility of a third front for the elections.

A party testing its own strength

The BJP's focus on forming alliances with smaller parties rather than AIADMK suggests a strategy to test its own strength in Tamil Nadu. Its primary aim seems to be taking advantage of the fall in anti-BJP sentiments in wake of the visits by the Prime Minister. The BJP's groundwork in select constituencies and its efforts to expand support indicate a strategic approach to gain a wider presence in the state.

The party also looks towards gaining from the Supreme Court's rebuke to the Tamil Nadu Sports Minister and DMK leader Udhayanidhi Stalin over his remarks on "Sanatana Dharma". The apex court asked the DMK leader who is also the son of Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin that he should refrain from such comments as he was "not a layman but a minister".

Current alliance status and future outlook

The BJP's alliance status in Tamil Nadu is under scrutiny. With negligible voter share in the state, the party's efforts to secure alliances with parties like Tamil Manila Congress face challenges. The AIADMK's categorical rejection of a patch-up and its pursuit of alternative alliances add complexity to the BJP's electoral strategy.

While the party's outreach efforts in wake of PM Modi's back-to-back visits to Tamil Nadu have created a buzz, the actual electoral outcome remains uncertain.

The BJP's decision to focus on testing its strength without a major alliance partner reflects a strategic gamble in its pursuit of a more influential role in Tamil Nadu politics and that of South India as a whole.