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A recent research paper published in the Nature journal has found that India's contribution to the global mean surface temperature (GMST) change resulting from historical emissions of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide (N2O) is 4.8%. In comparison, the United States has contributed the most globally, with a 17.3% change, while China contributed 12.3%. The paper, titled "National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850," was authored by researchers from various institutions, including the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the University of East Anglia.
Developed Nations Responsible for Significant Warming Since Industrial Revolution
The paper's authors note that emissions from developed nations have contributed significantly to warming since the industrial revolution. Therefore, tracking national contributions to climate change is critical in understanding a country's burden of responsibility for global warming. This information can further inform the design of international policies that pursue equitable decarbonization pathways.
Significance of Paper Ahead of Global Stocktake
The paper's release comes ahead of the Global Stocktake of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change scheduled to take place at the UN Climate Conference (COP28) in Dubai in December 2023. The global stocktake of the Paris Agreement (GST) is a process for taking stock of the implementation of the Paris Agreement by each country and sector. The Paris Agreement's goal is to keep global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Dataset of National Contributions Available Publicly
The study introduces a new dataset of national contributions to global warming caused by historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide during 1851–2021, consistent with the latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The researchers note that this dataset is publicly available via Zenodo repository.
India Doing More Than its Fair Share
India's analysis aligns with the paper's findings. In response to a question in Rajya Sabha on India’s contribution to climate crisis, Junior Environment Minister Ashwini Kumar Choubey stated that India, with more than 17% of the global population, has only contributed about 4% of the global cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 1850 and 2019. Reports from various sources, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, highlight that the challenges faced due to global warming are mainly due to cumulative historical and current greenhouse gas emissions of the developed countries. India is part of the solution and is doing more than its fair share, Choubey added.
Contentious National Contributions and Historical Responsibility of Emissions
National contributions and historical responsibility of emissions are contentious issues. Negotiations leading to the latest synthesis report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) revealed deep differences between wealthy nations and developing countries like India on funding needed to combat the climate crisis and the role of the developed world in precipitating the emergency. The IPCC's Synthesis Report predicts that the world is on course to overshoot the 1.5°C global warming threshold, which will lead to irreversible harm and risks for human and natural climate systems. According to a report published in HT, the authors portend the "worst impacts on India and South Asia" of the climate crisis.