As India Overtakes China in Population, Experts Urge Health & Education Investments

India is expected to become the world's most populous country by mid-2023, surpassing China, with a population of 142.86 crore (1.4286 billion). This presents both challenges and opportunities for India. While a large young and middle-aged population can contribute to economic growth and social advancement, it also calls for increased health, education, employment, and social stability investments to ensure sustainable and equitable development.

According to a survey conducted by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) across eight countries, including India, Egypt, France, Hungary, Japan, Nigeria, and the US, 68% of India's population falls in the working age group of 15 to 64 years, while 25% are between the ages of 0 and 14, 18% are between 10 and 19, 26% are between 10 and 24, and 7% are beyond the age of 65.

Speaking to The Processor, Dr. K Srinath Reddy, President of the Public Health Foundation of India, said that population stabilization is important for countries and the planet, and each country should adopt policies that align with its aspirations for economic growth and social stability. He also emphasizes the need for inter-state differences in fertility rates to be addressed, with a focus on improving female education and workforce participation rates in states where fertility rates are still high.  

"India has just overtaken China, to become the most populous nation in the world. This is both a challenge and an opportunity. The demographic profile of India, over the next 25 years, will see a large segment of young and middle-aged persons who can contribute energetically to economic growth and social advancement". He added, "However, this calls for increased economic and social investments in health, well-being, education, skilling, employment, social stability and collective commitment to sustainable and equitable development. If we do not ensure these, a huge number of unemployed and socially alienated young persons will disrupt development and derail social stability".

In November 2022, the world population crossed the 8 billion mark. While many regard this as an amazing milestone for the human race that should be treasured and embraced, many others see it as a warning indication of overpopulation or that whole countries and areas are aging into obsolescence. When human numbers are counted, and demographic milestones are reached, the rights and potential of people seem to recede into the background.

The study investigates how the general public, governments, academics, and others perceive contemporary population trends, and how such perceptions affect reproductive and sexual health as well as rights. The UNFPA asked a representative sample of 7,797 people across eight countries, including India, Egypt, France, Hungary, Japan, Nigeria, and the US.

India’s Population: An Overview

While absolute numbers are increasing, the share of young adults, which was more than 30% of the population in the 2011 Census, is predicted to shrink to 26.5 per cent by 2022, according to UN predictions.

According to the research, 68% of India's overall population is between the ages of 15 and 64, which is considered the country's working population. Around 25% are between the ages of 0 and 14; 18% are between the ages of 10 and 19; 26% are between the ages of 10 and 24; and 7% are beyond the age of 65.

We asked Dr Reddy whether policies to increase, decrease, or maintain fertility rates are beneficial in the Indian context. To which he responded, "Population stabilisation is important for countries and also for protecting the planet. Each country should adopt policies that will stimulate and support a population profile that best fits its economic growth and social stability aspirations. Countries with sharply declining fertility rates and shrinking populations are trying to incentivise population growth. Others are trying to maintain or reduce population growth rates, based on their present profile and the future needs of a stable working population. At the global level, we must collectively aim to stabilise the total human population so that we do not escalate consumption levels and rapidly exhaust natural resources. Six of the nine planetary boundaries have already been crossed. We cannot afford to do more harm to the planet, even as climate change unleashes future dangers and forebodes future disasters".

Another UN report, World Population Prospects 2022, published in July of the previous year, predicted that by 2050, India's population will reach 166.8 crore, considerably outnumbering China's shrinking population of 131.7 crore. India had 86.1 million people in 1950, whereas China had 114.4 million. According to UN forecasts, India's population will continue to expand for the next 30 years before beginning to decline.

According to the survey, the median male life expectancy at birth in India is 71 years, while the female life expectancy is 74 years. The total fertility rate in India, counted by births per woman of reproductive age, is projected to be 2.0.

Expert Speaks on National Population Policy

National Population Policy (NPP) was presented on February 15, 2000, it was established to meet India's needs for reproductive and child health and to achieve TFR (total fertility rate) by 2010. The main goal of India's Population Policy was to tackle many issues, including mother's health, child survival, and contraception, as well as to enhance accessibility to and the affordability of reproductive health services for all. The NPP underlines the commitment of the government to enabling citizens to make free, educated decisions and consent when utilising reproductive medical care.

On being asked if India needs to update its population policy which was implemented back in the year 2000. Dr Reddy suggests, "There is indeed a need to recast India’s population policy, to address current realities and future needs. Overall, our TFR has fallen just below the net replacement level. We must recognise the inter-state differences in fertility rates and focus on the states where the rates are still high. Female education and workforce participation rates are still low in them. This has to be corrected through effective policy interventions and increased accountability for implementation".

While suggesting some of the actions that the authorities can take, he said, "The measures we adopt must be voluntary and non-coercive. At the same time, skilling will need to be scaled up to equip the working-age population with the knowledge and skills needed for gainful employment and productive performance in India and abroad, as opportunities arise. The digital revolution offers new pathways for formal and non-formal education and skilling. Even as the population stabilises, we need to promote policies that protect and promote the health and well-being of everyone in that population. We must also align the NOP and its targets to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The policy also needs to recognise and respond to the health and social needs of the growing segment of the elderly population in the country. It needs to ensure unhindered access to reproductive health services".

On the question of the National Population Policy's remarkable initiatives and achievements, Dr Reddy stated, "Though the targets set by NPP for achievement by 2010 were not achieved by that date, we have made considerable progress and are on track for achieving most of the targets set by the SDGs for 2030. We have achieved our target of TFR and are on track for meeting the SDG targets for maternal and infant mortality rates. Our institutional delivery rates have markedly risen under the National Health Mission. Civil society engagement has been high and multi-sectoral coordination has been commendable." 

Global Fertility and Ideal Population

According to the findings of this analysis, governments have recently adopted policies targeted at increasing, decreasing, or maintaining fertility rates. Furthermore, the percentage of nations with fertility policies has increased, while the share of countries without fertility policies has decreased. Policies to control reproduction rates are not always coercive; they may take numerous forms; yet, the study concludes that attempts to affect fertility are connected with reduced levels of human freedom.

The study suggests that there is no such thing as ideal population size, nor is there any dependable means to obtain a given population number. Fertility rates change for a number of factors that extend far beyond the scope of targets and government initiatives. Attempts to control the population defy rationality at times.

For instance, Responding to an ageing population by encouraging people to have more babies, overlooks the fact that it will do little to alleviate labour shortages and pension burdens in the short term, and will actually increase the need for other large investments such as education long before children become beneficial, tax-paying individuals. 

8 Billion People, Boon or Curse?

The human race reaching the 8 billion people mark signifies unprecedented breakthroughs in medicine, research, health, agriculture, and education. However, the statistics indicate that population concerns have permeated a considerable proportion of the general public. According to the research, “In every country surveyed, the most common view among respondents was that the global population was too large”. 

Except for India and Japan, the most popular opinion among the six nations was that the world fertility rate was too high. While 47% of Japanese individuals feel the world's population is too large, 76% of Hungarians agree. Similarly, just 26% of Japanese people feel that the world fertility rate of 2.3 children per woman is too high, whereas 60% believe this in France. 

The report comments that there are other genuine and important population problems, such as the intricate relationships between population expansion, income, and fossil fuel use and the difficulty of financing infrastructure, medical care, and pension systems. However, by flattening out the nuance, we masquerade the issues that need to be addressed, burying them behind layers of hyperbole and blame. Fertility rates that depart from 2.1 are commonly seen as warning signs of imminent overpopulation or cataclysmic depopulation.