General Census to be Delayed Until 2024-25 Due to Pandemic, Elections

The general census enumeration, originally scheduled for 2021, has been postponed until further notice, with the latest deadline now set for 2024-25. The decision was announced in a letter sent to all states and Union Territories last month by the office of the Registrar General of India (RGI), citing the COVID-19 pandemic as the reason for the delay.

The Delayed Timeline

The general census enumeration can only begin a few months after administrative boundaries are frozen, which is now set to be extended until June 30, 2023. As general elections are scheduled early next year, the possibility of a census in 2023 is ruled out. The census enumeration will also be preceded by house-listing enumeration, where the exercise for the National Population Register (NPR) will be held. This means that the earliest possible time for the census to take place is at the end of September.

Administrative Changes

Before each census, states must notify the RGI of any changes in the number of designated districts, villages, towns, and other administrative divisions such as tehsils and talukas., and police stations in a state since the last census. The boundaries of administrative units are frozen three months before the commencement of the census. During this time, the data is gathered and exchanged with the RGI, which commences its census preparation process.

According to provisional data available with the RGI, the number of districts in the country has gone up from 640 in 2011 to 736 currently. This means that the workload for the census enumeration has also increased, making it more challenging to conduct the census in a timely manner.

Since the announcement of the census exercise and its deferment due to the pandemic in 2020, the deadline for freezing of jurisdictional boundaries has been extended seven times. The previous deadlines for jurisdictional changes were December 31, 2022, June 30, 2022, December 31, 2021, June 30, 2021, March 31, 2021, December 31, 2020, and January 31, 2020.

Amendments to Census Rules

In March last year, the government notified certain amendments to Census Rules to allow citizens to self-enumerate themselves in the census and National Population Register (NPR). The news spurred expectations estimated that the census's house-listing phase might begin last year.

While both NPR and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) have created much controversy in the wake of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), with many states openly opposing them, Due to the emergence of COVID-19 across the country, the due date for census enumeration was pushed back indefinitely in the first half of 2020.

Importance of Timely and Accurate Data

Countries like the US, UK and China conducted their census exercise during the peak COVID-19 pandemic, and their findings are now being published by various government agencies. It is a globally accepted fact that census data is imperative in framing policies and managing public affairs effectively. The United Nations has emphasised the importance of a census and has also published a guide to frame certain protocols. The UN handbook says, “Evidence-based decision-making is a universally recognized paradigm of efficient management of economic and social affairs and of overall effective governing of societies today. Generating relevant, accurate and timely statistics is a sine qua non of this model… The role of the population and housing census is to collect, process and disseminate such small-area detailed statistics on population, its composition, characteristics, spatial distribution and organization (families and households).” 

One of the biggest concerns with the postponement of the 2021 census is that the government lacks up-to-date data about the Indian demographic. So, governments are still drafting policies based on 2011 census data. This is at a time when societal, economic and demographic situations tend to change faster than ever, and outdated information can prove costly for policymakers. Various other government and non-government agencies conduct surveys, for instance, National Sample Survey (NSS) and National Family Health Survey (NFHS), however, they have a limited sample size.

Impact on General Elections

As the Lok Sabha elections are slated to take place in early 2024, conducting census activities prior to polls would be impossible. This means that the data used for the general elections will be based on the 2011 census, which may not accurately reflect the current demographics of the country. This delay may also impact the allocation of funds for various developmental programs and schemes.

The postponement of the general census is a setback for the country, especially at a time when accurate demographic data is essential for policymaking and development programs. It remains to be seen how the RGI will proceed with the census enumeration and whether citizens will be able to self-enumerate themselves in the future.